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New Rekordhochs while gold prices are possible …

Even from analytical perspective seems to be some evidence. This indicates, among other things, the 38th Edition of the Gold Survey of independent research company GFMS in London. “Gold prices of more than 600 US dollars are now not only in sight, but further price gains in the coming one or two years are possible. Under the appropriate circumstances, it seems to be even conceivable that the high in 1980 at 850 US dollars out, “Philip Klapwijk seized as GFMS chairman the key results of the analysis.

Background of the recent price gains of the precious metal were primarily purchases of international investors. They should his assessment in the current year for a further price boost. Investors often sought after for reasons such investments, Klapwijk. And did with the Hurricane Katrina and induced him by the rally in the energy complex because even find. At the same time had not only the well-known concerns about global imbalances and the American double deficit played a role, but also the perception of investors that the central bank the precious metal again positive than in the past considered. In Japan, the interest also of a strong yen weakness has been driven.

In view of the current year was the core motivation for the purchase of precious metals in the likelihood of an economic slowdown in the United States and the possible decline of the dollar. Other factors can be in the form of inflation but also geopolitical concerns with regard to the Middle-East and Middle East. But that is not all. Because “you play with fire if you ignore the liquidity argument,” said Klapwijk to look forward. If new “players”, such as pension funds on the basis of past performance in the commodity markets should be considered, then the gold price could really take off. If only a small part of the huge assets to be transformed into gold, the gold market is relatively small, then, the price would significantly upward.

… But rather because of speculation because of industrial demand

Such a development would have a lot to do with speculation. For example, look at the demand from the jewellery production, as they did last year increased by 100 tons. But in the first half, where the growing acceptance of prices above 400 dollars in connection with a strong economic growth in Asia for a certain momentum had ensured. On the other hand, the demand in the fourth quarter was weak because the price has significantly tightened and the increased volatility.

A similar trend was also in the market for gold to scrap observed. Here is the offer in the first half, while in the second it increased significantly. For this reason Klapwijk look with a degree of scepticism on the demand from the jewellery industry in the current year. “After what we saw in the first few months have heard, it could be in the year 2006 to 500 tonnes fall. That would be the use of this site some 400 tonnes below mine production. And this is not a sustainable long-term development, “said Klapwijk.

The trend was reversed in 2001, largely due to higher prices of other raw materials including oil. In 1999, black gold had fallen to 10 dollars per barrel, whereas it is now between 85 and 100 dollars. It is therefore not surprising to see or exceed the $ 900 early this year. However, adjusted for price drift in the United States, the precious metal has not regained its purchasing power. Indeed, the current historic gold at $ 850 an ounce in 1980 corresponds to a price of around $ 2200 today.

The market price of gold resulting from the confrontation between supply and demand, just like any market, but also in reference to the ingot. In addition, the documents are initially intended to serve as a medium of exchange for goods and services, they have not been beaten in pure gold, but contain an alloy to enhance hardness. Thus, our humphead wrasse (20 francs), whose gross vehicle weight is 6.4516 grams, comprises only 5.8 grams of fine gold. The $ 20 coin of the United States, which has a gross weight of 33437 grams, 30.09 grams requires of fine gold. This weight is taken into account to calculate the premium or discount parts.

The disinterest of investors for gold coins because of an unfavorable tax, the declining price of gold on the end of the last century, the risk of theft and damage have long created a selling pressure. Until recent months, the documents showed even a discount to their weight in gold. This discount is roughly the cost required for the melting of parts to recover gold.
The runway collection pieces
The return of sustained demand for physical gold is gradually an end to this situation. However, the fluctuations are not negligible, hence the need to move purchase orders and sales to current limit. Thus, the humphead wrasse showed a premium of 0.51% on Jan. 15, while on January 30 it externalising a discount of 0.83%. The half-humphead wrasse (10 francs), which is the subject of transactions more comprehensive, contains a higher premium (10.59% to 30 January), but markedly lower than in mid-January (14.04% ).

Some parts are subjected to particularly large fluctuations. Thus, the 50-piece Mexican pesos, which contains 37.5 grams of pure gold, keeps up with a premium (2.29% at January 30), whereas in the middle of the month décotait 2.84%. In contrast, the premium on the 20 United States dollars amounts to a more reasonable level (6.21% vs. 16.79%) previously. Under these circumstances, should never rush to buy or sell coins.

“The world needs in addition to the national units and a common currency,” said Nobel Economics laureate Robert Mundell, the coin when he, together with Wolfgang Duchatczek, Board of the Austrian National Bank in a New York gallery presented. Edition is limited: 14 of the 15 copies of ” Vienna Philharmonic, “short” Big Phil “, went to customers in the USA, Japan and Germany, a piece Coin is in the National Bank in Vienna.

But the problem is that I think that for the forums is confusing to people. Arguments are being very rare.

The first thing to bear in mind is that the Bank of Spain is not only selling gold, but all you have. Bonds, currencies, etc.. This invalidates the argument that “gold was at maximum values and want profitable.” Clearly, there is a massive liquidation for a specific reason. What we do not want is to clarify that reason. The popular deputy asked Solbes did just about the gold, which is the most striking, “Moscow gold”, and so on. But that was a mistake because Solbes quickly threw the ball away with a chorradilla.

Then he thinks that that can be done to balance the current account deficit. In what sense? I say this because in these technical issues, I note more insecure because I am not conversant. Does Balancing the balance of payments by selling gold to make this record as “exports”? Do liquidate reserves to mask a figure? After I had that figure unchecked for years and they so quiet? The truth is that we do not understand.

Then it came to the “12 days of imports.” Is that imports of Spanish private companies are paid by the Bank of Spain? I believe that the twelve days is used as a measurement to show the little size of the reserves with respect to the size of our economy.

Another issue is the “gold no longer needed because we are in the euro.” First, gold is needed because the same ECB has no reserves, remain the central banks of member countries of the euro. And second, that does not explain why malvende gold at full speed below its market value, or where that money goes. If Solbes said that it was buying bonds, we must ask exactly what and why bonds also sold bonds Americans (US Treasuries) and English (British gilts).

And another thing: why Kiener said that we are bankrupt? Why has basa? Well, I think that he is a specialist in the gold market, basa is simply that these sales as hasty, below market value, by a central bank has seen only in situations of extreme liquidity and very close into bankruptcy. That alone I think basa, in his experience of 25 years in this market.

So, nobody knows what is really happening, of course. I have a hypothesis, now you count. But make it clear that is only a hypothesis:

If poceros be around 25% of GDP at banks (especially those boxes), and those debts were paid with the sales floor, so if the floors are not sold debts not being paid. Promoters middle always working on credit. If you have the money to do uncle hundred houses, borrow ten times more to his friend in the housing and construction thousand. That is how we have been winning pasta in a frantic race.

So this promoter has a thousand homes built, a thousand euros per month for each mortgage, a milloncito a month has to pay the cash. If he has three or four million euros and loose, because it’s going to pay and in the meantime will subrogando mortgages to those who buy pardillos there in the booth. But of course, if pardillos fail, spend one, two, three months, the milloncito euros, plus the wages of bricklayers (300’s in the gang, to 2,000 euritos each, 600,000 per month), plus machinery, diesel, and so on.

As time passes and pardillos fail. The pasta is just and savings will run out of charge. But the money provided by the savings was not theirs was interbank loans or deposits of the people. And that these deposits and interbank credit have some interest to be paid each month (about interests ranging climbing). So goes paying until he was also run out of money. From there, informed the Bank of Spain and requests him to see if there are more pasta. The Bank of Spain has an obligation to be the last of the other lender banks. He responds in a crisis. Then, once that money loose from the Bank of Spain also just, the only solution is going to sell gold, currencies and bonds to be pulling pasándolos euros and the savings banks.

Because at the time that some of these savings will enter into “default” because it can be given by the bubble pinchada altogether. People go to the cashier and the money is not. From there, it would be very difficult to cover this scandal. The Government does not want to hear or talk about it, at least until the end of March 2008.

Of course, the ECB is aware of that and advises the rest of central banks to be provisionándose also because very soon interbank credit that may not be repaid.

So this is a hypothesis of mine and of course you can put it to the level of a novel by Lecarré. But I wonder about one thing: if only with some promotions unsold we have reached this situation, what will happen when they start the recession, layoffs that are falling and crashes in prices? If the promoters should the 25% of GDP, the “families” should be over 85% of GDP. Revisions massive mortgages, unemployment, decreases in salaries and especially the knowledge that her flat and is worth nothing and are “throwing money into a mortgage.” What we believe is going to happen?

And all this would have to add a so-called “panic banking,” if it is the voice of that savings banks are like the Forum Filatélico, that the money is Pocero bricks can not be sold. From there, the last ladybug. This was what triggered the Argentine corralito.

There is enough gold to return to the gold standard, always qu confidence in the promise was re. There is no hard and fast rule about how much credit solvent can be financed on the basis of gold, especially in this era of communications instantánteas and free.

In fact, gold is only the apex of the pyramid credit. His role is not to be present at each exchange, but to settle balances net debtor. By compensatory mechanisms, can be funded by an enormous amount of transactions with very little gold.

Indeed, the current problem is that the dollar has been used as an apex of this pyramid of credit, but the trust money (unable to retain its value in linking its existence to the market demand) does not pre-emptively to purge the bad debt , so that its creation will spread to exorbitant limits. As Fekete said, the dollar inconvertible we have reached a situation in which:

Debt alive today may not be settled through the normal procedure, that is, and withdrawing amortizándola shortcuts without resorting to inflationary or deflationary (ie, by default or depreciation). It is absurd to think that the pyramid of debt can grow indefinitely without result in a catastrophe. Any debt will be liquidated in the same way as subprime mortgages: by default - or, in his case, envileciendo currency.

Second interesting idea. Once this happens, the value of all assets denominated in dollars is going to fade. There is only one way to avoid buying gold to diversify our portfolio at a price that is still very cheap:

Not too late to use the gold with the purpose of covering the value of our asset portfolio. The private and institutional investors have investments worth 180 billion dollars. However, there are only 600 billion dollars in the form of gold bullion that can be used for cover. In other words, only 0.33% of all investments are protected by gold, while more than 99% is not (…) International If investors decide to use a third of their assets in gold to buy cubrire, the result would be that 6 billion dollars would be chasing 0.6 billion current gold prices (one-tenth). This means that there would be ten suppliers for each ounce of gold available. Buying gold is still cheap, but the cost could increase more than tenfold when the stampede begins.

The shares of the firm Bear Stearns fell by 50 percent, due to news of liquidity problems prompted the investment bank to secure financing for JPMorgan Chase and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

“All this fear of a crisis far from over loans seems to have escalated on a daily basis,” said analyst Daniel Hynes at Merrill Lynch.

“This has been a key driver of gold in the last couple of months. With this announcement only adds momentum,” he added.

The gilded metal, seen as an asset safe haven during political and financial problems, has come to raise up to $ 1.007,10 ounce. The spot gold closed at 996.90 / 997.70 dollars at 18:15 GMT, compared with 991/991, 80 dollars in New York close of the previous day.

Gold has gained nearly 20 percent in 2008 and 32 percent in 2007.

Future transados gold in the United States touched a maximum of 1,009 US dollars an ounce. The contract more active metal for delivery in April closed with a rise of 5.70 dollars, to 999.50 dollars metals COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

All the more annoying it is for private investors to buy gold for them is still expensive and cumbersome. A new product of the German Stock Exchange wants to change this. The Xetra-Gold Bond (WKN A0S 9GB) offers its customers no interest, but rather follows the gold price in euros. It reflects the performance of the precious metal coveted almost 1:1. Nevertheless, the paper is easy and quick to act: Starting at a value of about 20 euros for one gram of gold is a possible purchase. Meaningful are only slightly higher amounts so that the fees for the acquisition not high.

As costs fall in the gold Xetra bond initially the usual buying and selling of one’s own bank charges for stock transactions. In addition, there is a margin between the buying and selling price (spread). The Xetra computer trading, Deutsche Bank between 9.00 and 17.30 am running courses for the bond. These should spread under normal market conditions do not exceed 1.0 percent. In fact, it currently is usually only about 0.1 percent. The current fees are limited for the safekeeping of gold, which for the bond will be deposited, falling 0.36 percent. Most banks, these costs - in addition to the normal fee for safekeeping securities - to the investors possession.

Who, on the other hand directly in gold coins or create barren, is usually a bank locker rent to the valuable asset secure. In addition, there are often the premium for a high enough safe insurance. The costs are so with gold assets in four - or five-euro amount is often much higher than in the Xetra-gold bond. Even greater the cost differences in the acquisition and sale. Even with a one-kilogram gold bars for currently around 20,000 euros, the spread for precious metal dealers often several percentage points. For smaller denominations and gold coins is the loss by buying and selling even significantly higher.

Therefore, many banks have been in investment certificates for gold. These securities are legally considered a bond dar. Unlike the Xetra gold bond, they are usually not secured with gold. Unit, the Institute for example, by the American mortgage crisis in financial problems, it may be the value of the gold certificate may no longer repay. Deutsche Börse Commodities Ltd., the issuer’s Xetra gold bond, deposited on the other hand, the corresponding quantity of physical gold in the settlement company Clearstream Banking AG or acquires gold corresponding book claims. Even with a bankruptcy of the issuer should the claims of the investors, therefore, under normal market conditions to be met. In addition, each purchaser of the Gold Bond a claim for the extradition of gold. In practice, this is only useful in larger quantities. Fees covered by others for the formation of gold bars, transport and insurance. But this gives investors the opportunity to security, where appropriate, on the gold and physical access.

A similar protection against the failure of the issuer offered hitherto practically only listed gold funds (ETFs gold). They include, for example, the Street Tracks Gold Trust (WKN A0D NJ8, US-symbol: GLD), the Lyxor Gold Bullion (WKN A0L P78), or the ZKB gold ETF (security number 2439100 / ISIN CH0024391002). Its main revenue However, mostly on foreign exchanges. The ZKB gold ETF is even exclusively traded in Switzerland. In addition, not every one gold ETF also in the practical applications option for the physical delivery of gold to the investors.

As an interesting alternative, therefore, the fund DWS Gold Plus (WKN 973246) established. He invested almost half of its assets in precious metal accounts. These confer mostly gold. Beigemischt, according to the semi-annual report of 30 June 2007 but also platinum, silver and palladium. About options and futures transactions, the fund is designed as if it is completely in the precious metals investment. The currency risk manages the DWS is flexible. Through a hedge against the U.S. dollar, the fund can thus basically a weakness of the Greenbacks improvements. This makes the DWS Gold Plus despite its current total cost of 0.9 percent a year. The Xetra Gold Bond secures the currency risk on the other hand, generally not, but reckons the current dollar price of gold in euros only. Should the gold price in dollars will increase especially when the American currency schwächelt, as in the past often happens, are also the buyer’s Xetra gold bond by this effect. The performance of gold in euros is then due to the lack of currency hedging lower. The new Xetra gold bond is therefore is a good, transparent and easily tradable plant for the precious metal, but should only be purchased by investors for which a currency hedging is not important.

In recent weeks has suffered a major violent correction from the highest to the area of 620, but that is no less proportional to the last mile climb. And now it seems resume its uptrend.

At that juncture, the upside in the gold come to light publicly again and resume their predictions of a gold at $ 1,000. But that is nothing new in this market. What is new is that gold can reach $ 3,000 in the long term. Some people said and what is someone important: Harry Schultz, a true veteran of the markets that publishes its newsletter since 1960.

In early May, Schultz warned of a possible major correction due to the overbought registering metal. But maintaining an overview bullish based on the economic environment. In his view, the public was asleep, and when they woke up, “the price of gold would go up in a way never seen before.”

After the fall, believes that gold has fallen to a very important area of support (620), which offers a clear opportunity to purchase: “I recommend increasing the percentage of gold holdings to 25% -30%. But I am not sure that the correction has finished, it is better to defer purchases until the channel is broken bearish upward. ”

But where Schultz was completely leaves the average is at its long-term vision, the more bullish impossible. Their reasoning is as follows: “My vision is that current governments (which are in the hands of the banks) will not return voluntarily to the gold standard, with its discipline on money creation. But when the price of firing, say, $ 1,600, will probably be obliged to do so in order to appease an outcry for money healthy, ie Breton Woods II. The price could reach 2,000 while discussing the new rules. Washington may see this as their last chance to save the dollar as a reserve currency. If they do not, the euro, the yen or the yuan could snatch that status … If there are new rules on levels of $ 1,600, gold could continue to rise until they become. Hello, 3,000. ”

If Eichel castle on the final writes: “I was also asked whether it is not like gold and buy on credit, a leverage effect. Likely climb well, but I recommend it anyway.” So asks the reader rightly - that is what now?

Eichel castle even writes: “In a situation like now, you should have no credits have run. Only I can recommend to all readers, their loans repaid and, if necessary, house / apartment for sale, and in the meantime to rent.” He justified this with sentences such as: “In a nonlinear mixture of deflation and hyperinflation, every credit pure poison. In any kind of economic crisis should be no loans running.”

The reasons, it points to the writings of Günter Hannich and Eberhard Hamer and Eike, like other prophets crash also a deflationary collapse first, and then expect a hyperinflation. In this case, it is obviously useful to begin to entschulden and cash bunkern, as, for example, it Hannich and Paul C. Martin recommend because cash in deflationary collapse is always valuable. But is a process, as it acorn castle as follows describes any plausible?

Summary of the process:

     * 1 Level: sell the dollar and then the other currencies, with interest explosion
     * 2 Level: Massenbankrotte including Staatsbankrotte
     * 3 Level: Euro breaks, states begin to monetise massively, hyperinflation
     * 4 Level: stabilization crisis, new currency is introduced

After this sequence, ie until the deflationary collapse and then the hyperinflation, Presentation after the crash prophets, the State has only one payment, then the audience is flooded with money, and then somehow in a kind of “crisis stabilization” finally a new currency. Eichel Burg writes: “Vorrübergehend the states then (in Stage 2) at least become insolvent, civil servants’ salaries and pensions and social benefits are reduced or not paid for a long time. Subsequently, at least some countries of the euro and erupt into a spiral hyperinflationäre occur.”

Somehow purzelt because of the logic of her somewhat confused, and you have the feeling that it may not be correct. I think exactly the opposite, it is a shoe. First comes the hyperinflation and a currency reform. The debt will not exceed the deflationary collapse booked, but on the hyperinflation. In this case, it makes sense to get into debt. I want to try this position shortly to explain.

Eichel castle is right on the huge global debt. A phenomenon that in this way it never has, so the orientation of past operations (hyperinflation 1923, deflation 1933 ff) easily be misled. Of the crash prophet is usually the preferred option deflationary with 1933 as a model. At the time came, in fact, the money supply, the prices fell, money value rose and the world economy broke. In such a scenario, of course, is a poison debt, because the purchasing power of money and thus increasing the debt more pressing and more difficult to operate. It must therefore necessarily debt in such a phase.

But such a development is a plausible and probably today? Have we not a completely different situation? 1929/30, when the great depression started, we had a gold standard. He was already softened, and it had only about 40% gold as cover accused, but there was Einlösepflicht in gold for banknotes. As the Bankrun einsetzte 1933, the people wanted to collect their gold and the stock was quickly exhausted. Roosevelt then the banks closed and announced bekäme all his money (paper), when the banks reopen, private possession of gold, however, was prohibited. People have got to this trick, and were pleased that the banks have again aufmachten and they came to their money.

Many banks and businesses went bankrupt in 1929 after the inflated loan money (not the gold money) shrank dramatically. This occurred in the history of money an extremely rare case that the remaining money, which is still officially was covered with gold, always valuable. It also made sense to bunkern money, loans were fatal.

We have no gold but today cover more. State and banks can now generate any amount of money. The great error of the crash prophets is that they somehow still the gold standard from 1930 in the head, that they believe the money was still somewhat limited in his State officials could no longer afford to pay, because the money from him. But this case will now certainly not occur. It has not worked 200 years, from the precious metal to free captive to now this freedom not to do so. For about 35 years, is no more currency in the world of gold or anything else. This is a completely new experiment that has never been given before, which is why we made the 30s also no meaningful conclusions.

Since the abolition of the gold binding state and banks can be any debt and both together can play any amounts of money. The market value of houses is in the major economies in the years 2000 - 2005 by some 30 trillion to 70 trillion increase in the market capitalization of shares in the global stock markets has improved in that time already doubled from 20 to about 40 trillion dollars, because the money has increased immensely.

Why should these values are not going to double over the next 5 years, with a corresponding gain (imaginary), which then also can be loaned. Inflation is creeping poison a halt, for a long time until very pleasant effect. Rising share prices and houses are not considered inflation, but as a pleasant prosperity perceived increase, the additional debt.

Mr. Hannich and Debitisten are always mistakenly by a repayment of the debt. That must not happen naturally. How acorn Castle rightly writes, it is anyway no longer possible. The savings rhetoric of our government is extremely misleading. It is not, however, any savings but more of deception in order to preserve the confidence in the value of money

We can but with a large safety be confident that there will be a hyperinflation will come. In this case, it makes sense to debt and property to buy. Gold and silver are particularly suitable because they are likely once again to money, but on the other hand, because they are currently material assets, as opposed to real estate is still extremely undervalued.

Inflation in the last decades of gold and silver gerauscht completely gone. Silver should be somewhere at 25 and gold in 1400, only to offset the effects of inflation. In a hyperinflation can of course gold and silver prices reaching unprecedented and your old debts can then crumbs with a gold repay. It is now more important to keep calm and also by strong price increases are not tempted to let his precious metal against waste paper (fiat money) to sell, as Warren Buffett now with his silver happened. A psychologically good vehicle for this is silver art (www.bullion-art.de), which sells it is not as fast.

In order to do an acorn Castle virtually off-times to answer. When in 2001, e.g. Silver for 100,000 euros and has purchased an additional 100,000 euros for further silver on credit in dollars by the whole silver for the dollar has pledged credit, it has now practical for silver and 400,000 euros of credit in euros has virtually no cost, on the contrary , it now owes less than in Euro 2001 in the form of dollars were borrowed. It was also useful to silver to buy on credit.